A Novel Document Generation Process for Topic Detection based on Hierarchical Latent Tree Models

We propose a novel document generation process based on hierarchical latent tree models (HLTMs) learned from data. An HLTM has a layer of observed word variables at the bottom and multiple layers of latent variables on top. For each document, we first sample values for the latent variables layer by layer via logic sampling, then draw relative frequencies for the words conditioned on the values of the latent variables, and finally generate words for the document using the relative word frequencies. The motivation for the work is to take word counts into consideration with HLTMs. In comparison with LDA-based hierarchical document generation processes, the new process achieves drastically better model fit with much fewer parameters. It also yields more meaningful topics and topic hierarchies. It is the new state-of-the-art for the hierarchical topic detection

An urban sprawl index based on multivariate and Bayesian factor analysis with application at the municipality level in Valencia

[EN] Urban sprawl is now a common and threatening phenomenon in Europe, severely affecting environmental and economic sustainability. An analytical characterization and measurement of urban sprawl are required to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon and to propose the possible solutions. Traditional factor analysis techniques, especially Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis, have been commonly used. In this paper, we additionally test Independent Component Analysis with the aim to obtain a multidimensional characterization of the sprawl phenomenon. We also use Bayesian Factor Analysis to obtain a single (unidimensional) measuring index of sprawl, which also allows us to obtain the uncertainty of the inferred index, in contrast to traditional approaches. All these techniques have been applied to study the phenomenon of urban sprawl at the municipality level in Valencia, Spain using a wide set of variables related to the characteristics and patterns of urban land use.Gielen, E.; Riutort-Mayol, G.; Palencia Jiménez, JS.; Cantarino-Martí, I. (2017). An urban sprawl index based on multivariate and Bayesian factor analysis with application at the municipality level in Valencia. Environment and Planning B Planning and Design. 1-27. doi:10.1177/2399808317690148S12

Performed and preferred participation in science and technology across Europe: Exploring an alternative idea of "democratic deficit"

Republican ideals of active scientific citizenship and extensive use of deliberative, democratic decision making have come to dominate the public participation agenda, and academic analyses have focused on the deficit of public involvement vis-à-vis these normative ideals. In this paper we use latent class models to explore what Eurobarometer survey data can tell us about the ways in which people participate in tacit or in policy-active ways with developments in science and technology, but instead of focusing on the distance between observed participation and the dominant, normative ideal of participation, we examine the distance between what people do, and what they themselves think is appropriate in terms of involvement. The typology of citizens emerging from the analyses entails an entirely different diagnosis of democratic deficit, one that stresses imbalance between performed and preferred participation

A mediation approach to understanding socio-economic inequalities in maternal health-seeking behaviours in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: The levels and origins of socio-economic inequalities in health-seeking behaviours in Egypt are poorly understood. This paper assesses the levels of health-seeking behaviours related to maternal care (antenatal care [ANC] and facility delivery) and their accumulation during pregnancy and childbirth. Secondly, it explores the mechanisms underlying the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and maternal health-seeking behaviours. Thirdly, it examines the effectiveness of targeting of free public ANC and delivery care. METHODS: Data from the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey were used to capture two latent constructs of SEP: individual socio-cultural capital and household-level economic capital. These variables were entered into an adjusted mediation model, predicting twelve dimensions of maternal health-seeking; including any ANC, private ANC, first ANC visit in first trimester, regular ANC (four or more visits during pregnancy), facility delivery, and private delivery. ANC and delivery care costs were examined separately by provider type (public or private). RESULTS: While 74.2% of women with a birth in the 5-year recall period obtained any ANC and 72.4% delivered in a facility, only 48.8% obtained the complete maternal care package (timely and regular facility-based ANC as well as facility delivery) for their most recent live birth. Both socio-cultural capital and economic capital were independently positively associated with receiving any ANC and delivering in a facility. The strongest direct effect of socio-cultural capital was seen in models predicting private provider use of both ANC and delivery. Despite substantial proportions of women using public providers reporting receipt of free care (ANC: 38%, delivery: 24%), this free-of-charge public care was not effectively targeted to women with lowest economic resources. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-cultural capital is the primary mechanism leading to inequalities in maternal health-seeking in Egypt. Future studies should therefore examine the objective and perceived quality of care from different types of providers. Improvements in the targeting of free public care could help reduce the existing SEP-based inequalities in maternal care coverage in the short term

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p

Can Machine Intelligence be Measured in the Same Way as Human intelligence?

In recent years the number of research projects on computer programs solving human intelligence problems in artificial intelligence (AI), artificial general intelligence, as well as in Cognitive Modelling, has significantly grown. One reason could be the interest of such problems as benchmarks for AI algorithms. Another, more fundamental, motivation behind this area of research might be the (implicit) assumption that a computer program that successfully can solve human intelligence problems has human-level intelligence and vice versa. This paper analyses this assumption

Myxosporean hyperparasites of gill monogeneans are basal to the Multivalvulida

Background: Myxosporeans are known from aquatic annelids but parasitism of platyhelminths by myxosporeans has not been widely reported. Hyperparasitism of gill monogeneans by Myxidium giardi has been reported from the European eel and Myxidium-like hyperparasites have also been observed during studies of gill monogeneans from Malaysia and Japan. The present study aimed to collect new hyperparasite material from Malaysia for morphological and molecular descriptions. In addition, PCR screening of host fish was undertaken to determine whether they are also hosts for the myxosporean. Results: Heavy myxosporean infections were observed in monogeneans from two out of 14 fish and were detected from a further five fish using specific PCRs and pooled monogenean DNA. Positive DNA isolates were sequenced and were from a single species of myxosporean. Myxospore morphology was consistent with Myxidium with histozoic development in the parenchymal tissues of the monogenean. Simultaneous infections in the fish could not be confirmed microscopically; however, identical myxosporean DNA could be amplified from kidney, spleen and intestinal tract tissues using the specific PCR. Small subunit (SSU) rDNA for the myxosporean was amplified and was found to be most similar (92%) to that of another hyperparasitic myxosporean from a gill monogenean from Japan and to numerous multivalvulidan myxosporeans from the genus Kudoa (89-91%). Phylogenetic analyses placed the hyperparasite sequence basally to clades containing Kudoa, Unicapsula and Sphaerospora. Conclusions: The myxosporean infecting the gill monogenean, Diplectanocotyla gracilis, from the Indo-Pacific tarpon, Megalops cyprinoides, is described as a new species, Myxidium incomptavermi, based on a histozoic development in the monogenean host and its phylogenetic placement. We have demonstrated for the first time that a myxosporean hyperparasite of gill monogeneans is detectable in the fish host. However, myxospores could not be isolated from the fish and confirmation was by PCR alone. The relationship between the myxosporean infection in gill monogeneans and the presence of parasitic DNA in fish is not yet fully understood. Nonetheless, myxospores with a Myxidium-like morphology, two of which we have shown to be phylogenetically related, have now been reported to develop in three different gill monogeneans, indicating that myxosporeans are true parasites of monogeneans

Issues in the construction of wealth indices for the measurement of socio-economic position in low-income countries

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies often require measures of socio-economic position (SEP). The application of principal components analysis (PCA) to data on asset-ownership is one popular approach to household SEP measurement. Proponents suggest that the approach provides a rational method for weighting asset data in a single indicator, captures the most important aspect of SEP for health studies, and is based on data that are readily available and/or simple to collect. However, the use of PCA on asset data may not be the best approach to SEP measurement. There remains concern that this approach can obscure the meaning of the final index and is statistically inappropriate for use with discrete data. In addition, the choice of assets to include and the level of agreement between wealth indices and more conventional measures of SEP such as consumption expenditure remain unclear. We discuss these issues, illustrating our examples with data from the Malawi Integrated Household Survey 2004-5. METHODS: Wealth indices were constructed using the assets on which data are collected within Demographic and Health Surveys. Indices were constructed using five weighting methods: PCA, PCA using dichotomised versions of categorical variables, equal weights, weights equal to the inverse of the proportion of households owning the item, and Multiple Correspondence Analysis. Agreement between indices was assessed. Indices were compared with per capita consumption expenditure, and the difference in agreement assessed when different methods were used to adjust consumption expenditure for household size and composition. RESULTS: All indices demonstrated similarly modest agreement with consumption expenditure. The indices constructed using dichotomised data showed strong agreement with each other, as did the indices constructed using categorical data. Agreement was lower between indices using data coded in different ways. The level of agreement between wealth indices and consumption expenditure did not differ when different consumption equivalence scales were applied. CONCLUSION: This study questions the appropriateness of wealth indices as proxies for consumption expenditure. The choice of data included had a greater influence on the wealth index than the method used to weight the data. Despite the limitations of PCA, alternative methods also all had disadvantages